Published May 12, 2025 | Version 1
Journal article Open

CMIP6-based global estimates of future aridity index and potential evapotranspiration for 2021-2060

Authors/Creators

  • 1. Center for Mountain Futures, Kunming Institute of Botany Chinese Academy of Sciences, Kunming, Yunnan, China
  • 2. CIFOR-ICRAF China Program, World Agroforestry Centre, Kunming, Yunnan, China
  • 3. National Biodiversity Future Center - NBFC, Palermo, Sicily, Italy

Description

The "Future_Global_AI_PET Database" provides high-resolution (30 arc-seconds) average annual and monthly global estimates of potential evapotranspiration (PET) and aridity index (AI) for 22 CMIP6 Earth System Models for two future (2021–2041; 2041–2060) and two historical (1960–1990; 1970–2000) time periods, for each of four shared socio-economic pathways (SSP). Three multimodel ensemble averages are also provided (All; Majority Consensus, High Risk) with different level of risks linked to climate model uncertainty. An overview of the methodological approach, geospatial implementation and a technical evaluation of the results is provided. Historical results were compared for technical validation with weather station data ( PET: r 2 = 0 .72; AI: r 2 = 0.91) and the CRU_TS v 4.04 dataset ( PET: r 2 = 0 .67; AI: r 2 = 0 .80). Within the context of projected significant change in the near- and medium-term, the "Future_Global_AI_PET Database" provides a set of data projections and tools available for a variety of scientific and practical applications, illustrating trends and magnitude of predicted climatic and eco-hydrological impacts on terrestrial ecosystems. The Future_Global_AI_PET Database is archived in the ScienceDB repository and available online at: https://doi.org/10.57760/sciencedb.nbsdc.00086

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Additional details

Cites
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10.1016/S0022-1694(02)00101-4 (DOI)
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