Projection of Long-Term Agricultural Energy Demand in Ethiopia

This study presents a comprehensive projection of long-term agricultural energy demand in
Ethiopia from 2022 to 2050 using the MAED (Model for Analysis of Energy Demand) framework.
It evaluates four scenarios: business as usual (BAU), high gross domestic product (GDP) growth,
sector-specific plan and energy efficiency and fuel switch. Results indicate a significant increase in
energy demand across all scenarios, with the BAU scenario increasing from about 7.28 PJ in 2022
to over 36.2 PJ (401%) by 2050 and the high GDP scenario peaking at 71.3 PJ (879%) by 2050.
The sector-specific policy plan results in demand reaching 25.1 PJ (244%) by 2050, driven by
targeted agricultural policies and rural development efforts. Traditional fuels remain dominant,
particularly in the high GDP and sector-specific policy cases. However, the energy efficiency and
fuel switch scenario demonstrates a more sustainable trajectory, with slower energy demand
growth 16.1 PJ (132%) by 2050 and reduced dependency on traditional fuels through improved
efficiency and cleaner alternatives such as solar thermal and modern biomass. 
Key lessons highlight the urgent need to decouple economic growth from traditional fuel
reliance in agriculture. Actionable recommendations include: developing and implementing clean
energy policies tailored to the agricultural sector, promoting the adoption of energy-efficient
technologies in the agricultural sector, accelerate fuel-switching from traditional biomass to
modern and renewable energy sources through targeted subsidies, and enhancing rural
electrification using decentralized renewable energy systems. In addition, policymakers should
integrate energy planning with national agricultural and climate strategies to ensure resilient, lowcarbon,

and inclusive rural development. Further, investment in research is required to assess cost
effectiveness of implementation pathways for clean energy transitions.