Epistemic Risk: A Transcendental Challenge to Determinism

This paper offers a new epistemic transcendental argument (ETA) against determinism. First, I introduce the thesis that determinism would expose one to a greater epistemic risk than libertarianism. In order to show that epistemic risk can undermine knowledge, I defend anti-risk epistemological approaches such as Clifford's maxim and Wald's maximin. Then, in order to show that some risks are unique to determinism, I analyse it using statistical tools such as a Markov chain. Finally, building on the insights thus developed, I propose an innovative ETA grounded in epistemic risk aversion: in determinism, all possible worlds are modally close and hence all contingent beliefs are risky. This argument departs from the Epicurean tradition, opening a new line against determinism.