Modelling the Role of Multiple Global Change Drivers on Future Range Shifts in a Tropical Biodiversity Hotspot

In a rapidly changing world, climate and land cover change are driving shifts in plant distributions globally. Predicting plant species ranges into the future is a conservation priority, especially in areas of high endemism and geographic isolation that exacerbate vulnerabilities to adaption. Moreover, plants like Calophyllum are experiencing high rates of mortality linked to a newly identified vascular wilt pathogen. We mapped the current distribution of C. paniculatum and its wilt, before predicting its range under multiple future climate and land cover scenarios. Our goal: to disentangle the multifaceted threats to plant species in a tropical Biodiversity Hotspot.