Drivers of economic risk and scenarios for the EU

Faced with unprecedented economic, technological and geopolitical challenges, the European Union (EU) must strengthen its resilience and influence to remain competitive in a rapidly changing world. This focus paper analyses the main economic risks that could affect the EU between now and 2035. The EU faces a combination of internal and external risks, including low productivity, an ageing population and technological backwardness, which are holding back its competitiveness. Its energy dependence, increasing geopolitical tensions and fragmented globalisation compound these vulnerabilities, affecting its economic security, consumer confidence and business value chains. These factors, exacerbated by climate and digital challenges, threaten economic growth and long-term stability. To summarise these risks, this focus paper identifies five drivers: (1) geopolitical instabilities, (2) globalisation dynamics, (3) environmental pressures and climate change, (4) social risks and human insecurities, and (5) technological and digital transformations.