GeoSEM model for assessing deforestation risks

The GeoSEM model integrates GIS-based spatial analysis (Geo) with Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) to quantify the direct and indirect effects of deforestation risks and drivers. This novel model was successfully tested in Uganda, revealing that energy demand and infrastructural development are the primary drivers intensifying deforestation. While urbanisation does not directly cause deforestation, it indirectly contributes by increasing energy demand. The model is scalable and transferable to different regions globally, providing valuable insights to support decision-making in balancing climate change mitigation, urbanisation, energy security, and forest conservation. The case study from Uganda has been accepted for oral presentation and publication at the 33rd GIS Research UK (GISRUK) Conference 2025 (https://gisruk.github.io/).