The effects of longer trucks on freight transport demand in Germany

In 2012 the German Federal Government started a five-year field trial with longer trucks. One scientific project
focused on empirical data of the logistic and transport processes as well as the modelling of future mileage and
market shares of longer trucks. Based on predefined scenarios, potential areas of application and accessible
routes for longer trucks were determined using a likelihood approach with particular attention to the different
definitions of a longer truck suitable road network. In a second step empirical data covering logistic
characteristics collected from participating carriers and forwarders were integrated into a sophisticated transport
model in order to estimate transport demand effects and emissions of air pollutants as well as greenhouse gases
stemming from longer trucks in normal business operations. The analyses of the traffic demand modelling for the
scenarios shows for the reference years 2014 and 2030 that due to logistical constraints and requirements
(generally) only a small part of all German heavy good vehicle trips (about 3.0 to 3.2 %) and even a smaller part
of all rail and inland waterway transport performance (1.8 and 2.9 %) can be considered as potentially shiftable
to longer trucks.