DATASET - Prime locations in Offshore Wind: Evaluating revenue resilience against price cannibalisation in Western Europe

These files were generated as part of the analysis for the article titled: Prime locations in Offshore Wind: Evaluating revenue resilience against price cannibalisation in Western Europe

Abstract : The European Union's commitment to achieving carbon neutrality by 2050 relies on a substantial increase in low-carbon energy generation, including 300 GW of offshore wind capacity. However, the concentration of assets in the North Sea has already led to significant price cannibalisation, negatively impacting the merchant revenues of projects. This article investigates the differences of sensitivity to revenue cannibalisation among offshore wind farms across Europe. 

A cross-correlation analysis is conducted to assess the synchronicity of wind power output across various European sea basins. The concept of capture value is used to quantify the relative market value of electricity generated by each asset. Historical data reveals a constant decline in this metric across Western Europe over the past decade. Two supervised machine learning models and one analytical model are developed to study the drivers of monthly capture value and to propose forecasts over 25 years for 18 locations distributed across France, Germany, and the Netherlands. An amplification of the observed decline is anticipated, driven primarily by increased renewable penetration. Furthermore, the relative synchronicity of wind patterns is found to significantly affect the sensitivity of wind farms to price cannibalisation within countries. Notably, the French Mediterranean region, characterised by low synchronicity with other French and European renewable assets, displays potential for higher and more stable revenues. In this region, capture values are projected to remain above 0.9 until 2050, translating into revenues 10-39% higher than those of other studied wind farms at that time, assuming equal price levels and capacity factors.