Published October 8, 2024
| Version v1
Preprint
Open
A logical difficulty with the concept of probability as uncertainty
Authors/Creators
Description
This paper describes a logical inconsistency that arises when expressing uncertainty about a constant using a continuous probability distribution, as in a typical Bayesian statistical analysis. When the distribution is updated by correct combination with a distribution obtained from new information, the result is not invariant to an arbitrary non-linear transformation. The conclusion to be drawn is that the theory of probability is not always capable of describing epistemic uncertainty.
Files
zenodoBrighton.pdf
Files
(236.0 kB)
| Name | Size | Download all |
|---|---|---|
|
md5:84462e46a3eb259beb52f30370640c0b
|
236.0 kB | Preview Download |