Published October 8, 2024 | Version v1
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A logical difficulty with the concept of probability as uncertainty

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This paper describes a logical inconsistency that arises when expressing uncertainty about a constant using a continuous probability distribution, as in a typical Bayesian statistical analysis. When the distribution is updated by correct combination with a distribution obtained from new information, the result is not invariant to an arbitrary non-linear transformation. The conclusion to be drawn is that the theory of probability is not always capable of describing epistemic uncertainty.

 

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