MAED-Driven Energy Planning for Residential Water Heating in South Africa: A Training Exercise

This report aims to provide an analysis of the residential energy demand for water heating in South Africa, with projections extending from 2019 to 2040. Utilizing the Model for Analysis of Energy Demand (MAED), the study investigates four scenarios that account for varying degrees of governmental intervention and policy implementation, specifically in the context of the South African National Standards (SANS 10400-XA2). The scenarios are designed to assess the impacts on energy consumption, focusing on the adoption of solar water heaters (SWHs) and other energy-efficient technologies across different income groups.

The analysis reveals that SWHs, when coupled with effective policy support, can significantly mitigate the reliance on traditional, carbon-intensive fuels, particularly within low-to-middle-income households. Improved access to water and the deployment of efficient water heating technologies are shown to enhance living conditions while simultaneously reducing energy demand. The energy demand projections serve as a critical input for the development of cost-effective and emissions-reducing strategies, which can be further explored using advanced energy system optimization models such as TIMES or OSeMOSYS.

The findings indicate that strong governmental support is essential for realizing significant energy savings and achieving equitable access to sustainable energy technologies. In the absence of such support, the anticipated benefits of energy efficiency improvements and emissions reductions may not be fully realised, particularly for low-to-middle-income households that are more likely to remain dependent on fuels with negative health and environmental implications.

Disclaimer: The results presented here are derived from a training and capacity-building exercise. They should not be interpreted as official statements, factual information, or the endorsed views of any affiliated organizations.