Achieving Sustainable Energy Development in Benin using OSeMOSYS

This study analyzes Benin's energy future through three scenarios: Business as Usual (BAU), Government Energy Target Case 1 (GET Case 1), and Government Energy Target Case 2 (GET Case 2), from 2015 to 2070. It focuses on installed capacity, renewable energy integration, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, outlining pathways for achieving energy self-sufficiency, universal electricity access, and emissions reductions.

The analysis reveals a substantial increase in installed capacity, with solar photovoltaic (PV) energy emerging as the key renewable technology across all scenarios, particularly from 2040 onwards. Offshore wind remains absent, while natural gas, particularly combined-cycle gas turbines (CCGT), continues to play a significant role in all scenarios. The BAU scenario projects 23 GW by 2070, with modest growth. GET Case 1, aiming for 35.14% renewable energy integration by 2030, reaches 30 GW, while GET Case 2, targeting 100% electricity access, projects 33 GW.

Despite increased renewable integration, reliance on fossil fuels in the GET scenarios limits GHG emissions reductions. The study highlights the need for more aggressive renewable targets beyond 35.14% to achieve significant emissions cuts. It recommends prioritizing investment in solar PV, exploring energy storage solutions, ensuring a stable natural gas supply, and promoting energy efficiency across all sectors.