Modelling Clean Energy Transition Pathways for Lao PDR-EMP-G-2024

This study explores clean energy transition pathways for Lao PDR using the Open-Source Energy Modelling System (OSeMOSYS) to model three scenarios: Business-as-Usual (BAU), Renewable Energy (RE) integration, and Electrification of Transport (ET). Lao PDR’s energy system, currently dominated by hydropower, faces challenges related to energy security and climate resilience. The study finds that, under the BAU scenario, hydropower remains the primary energy source, contributing to 75% of power generation by 2050. However, the RE and ET scenarios present more diversified energy mixes, with solar energy potentially supplying up to 50% of power generation. The ET scenario also emphasizes the integration of electric vehicles, projecting the highest total power generation and capacity by 2050, though it requires substantial investment in grid infrastructure and EV charging stations. The study concludes that a shift towards renewable energy and electrified transport, while initially costly, offers significant long-term benefits, including enhanced energy security, reduced greenhouse gas emissions, and economic sustainability. These findings provide critical insights for policymakers aiming to guide Lao PDR toward a more sustainable and resilient energy future.