Report on the observed climate, projected climate, and projected biodiversity changes for Mont-Tremblant National Park, Québec under differing levels of warming

Mont Tremblant National Park is among the top 5% of all non-marine protected areas, globally. The park is largely projected to be resilient to climate change, even at 4°C. Averaged over the entire area of this park, with 4°C warming (global, above pre-industrial), the area is projected to remain climatically suitable for 81.8% of its terrestrial biodiversity (fungi, plants, invertebrates, and vertebrates), with 97.3% of its area remaining an overall refugia (remaining climatically suitable for >75% of the species) for biodiversity. If warming levels were held to 2°C, 100% of the area would remain a climatic refugia and the area would remain climatically suitable for 93.5% of its terrestrial biodiversity.

Between 1961-1990 and 1991-2020 the average monthly temperature has increased by 0.2° - 2.0°C (December). With warming levels of 2.0°C the new average monthly temperature is equivalent to that only seen 1 in 3 years in 1961-1990, except for June – August having a new average temperature equivalent to that experienced 1 in 20 years. Four months have seen decreases in precipitation with the rest seeing increases. Models project that all months will become wetter except August. The number of months classified as being in severe drought have substantially decreased between 1961-1990 and 1986-2015, while the number of months classified as being waterlogged has nearly doubled. Under the climate change scenarios examined the number of months in severe drought are projected to increase. The number of months in a waterlogged state are also projected to increase.   

Biodiversity adaptation options generally allow for business-as-usual conservation taking into account changes in extreme events.