Genius Forecasting Vs. Forecasting Geniuses: An Innovation (and) Design Viewpoint

Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to define, scope, and critically review the notion of “genius, or exceptional individual with a charismatic leadership, in forecasting, or anticipating the future by trained judgment in complex organizations and venture capitalism, from the viewpoint of Design Futures, contextualizing and addressing the research question. The paper is based on documental back-tracing, in line with methodological approaches in social sciences, and on reflexivity, whereby the author contributed insights with his senior industry experience, and classic case study, referred to DARPA, a leading US public organization in Deep Tech, and Philips, a leading EU manufacturer in High Tech, compared. The paper structures the field of investigation according to its theoretical background, offering a comparative analysis of the two organizations from the viewpoint of “genius forecasting” socio-cultural and managerial approaches. The notion of “liminality” based on given “sensitizing concepts” is introduced, to critically articulate such comparison, with actionable conclusions in the form of a SWOT structure. The paper is based on case study analysis within a theoretical framework, grounded in documental back-tracing and reflexivity. The paper is not based on new scientific empirical research or purposedly executed expert interviews.The paper establishes a clear framework and offers actionable insights within the context of a peculiar phenomenon in terms of leadership and foresight. In particular, the paper combines a specific theoretical framework with the back tracing of a Deep Tech documental and High-Tech reflexive cases, establishing a balanced viewpoint on the notion of “genius” in Design Futures.

 Practical Implications: The paper is derivative of an earlier publication commissioned by EIC (European Innovation Council), therefore its applicability is paramount in terms of offering an actionable SWOT-based portfolio of insights, for implementation.