Data from: Climatically robust multi-scale species distribution models to support pronghorn recovery in California

We combined two climate-based distribution models with three finer-scale suitability models to identify habitat for pronghorn recovery in California now and into the future.

Location: California, United States 

Methods: We used a consensus approach to identify areas of suitable climate now (1980-2010) and future (2031-2060) for pronghorn in California. We compared the results of models from two separate hypotheses about their historical ecology in the state, specifically the migration hypothesis and the niche reduction hypothesis. We combined occurrences from GPS collars distributed across three populations of pronghorn in the state to create three distinct habitat models: (1) an ensemble model using Random Forests, Maxent, Classification and Regression Trees, and a Generalized Linear Model; (2) a step selection function; and (3) an expert-driven model. We evaluated consensus among both the climate models and the suitability models to prioritize areas for, and evaluate the prospects of, pronghorn recovery. 

Results: Climate suitability for pronghorn in the future depends heavily on model assumptions. Under the migration hypothesis, our model predicted that there will be on suitable climate in California in the future. Under the niche reduction hypothesis, by contrast, suitable climate will expand. Habitat also depended on the methods used, but areas of consensus among all three exist in large patches throughout the state.

Main Conclusions: Identifying habitat for a species which has undergone extreme range collapse, and which has very fine scale habitat needs, presents novel challenges for spatial ecologists. Our multi-method, multi-hypothesis approach can allow habitat modelers to identify areas of consensus and, perhaps more importantly, critical knowledge gaps that could resolve disagreements among the models. For pronghorn, a better understanding of their upper thermal tolerances and whether historical populations migrated will be crucial to their potential recovery in California and throughout the arid Southwest.