Report on the observed climate, projected climate, and projected biodiversity changes for Banff National Park Of Canada under differing levels of warming

Banff National Park is among the top 25% of all non-marine protected areas, globally. As a park with varying topography, the higher elevations are relatively resilient to climate change, even with higher levels of warming. However, the lower elevations, along the main watercourses are more exposed to climate change and face more adaptation challenges.  Averaged over the entire area, with 4°C warming (global, above pre-industrial), the area is projected to remain climatically suitable for 66.9% of its terrestrial biodiversity (fungi, plants, invertebrates, and vertebrates), with 30.5% of its area remaining an overall refugia (remaining climatically suitable for >75% of the species) for biodiversity. However, if warming levels were held to 2°C, 73.4% of the area would remain a climatic refugia and the area would remain climatically suitable for 86.6% of its terrestrial biodiversity.

Between 1961-1990 and 1991-2020 the average monthly temperature has increased by -0.5° (October) - +1.9°C (January). With warming levels of 2.0°C the new average monthly temperature is equivalent to that only seen 1 in 3 years in 1961-1990 for April-October (up to 1 in 20 years for July). Half of the months have seen increases in precipitation (March-June) with the rest seeing declines. Models project that most months will become wetter except for July-September. These changes in precipitation, accompanied by warmer weather, suggest a potential increase in overall fire risk.  The number of consecutive months classified as in severe drought has nearly doubled between 1961-1990 and 1986-2015.  With 2°C warming (global, relative to pre-industrial) the number of months in severe drought is projected to double. 

Biodiversity adaptation options generally allow for business-as-usual conservation, especially at higher elevations, taking into account changes in extreme events (heat and severe drought). However, lower elevation areas would need increasing levels of adaptation effort, especially with warming levels of 2°C and above.