Non-Oil Export Promotion and Manufacturing Capacity Utilization in Nigeria and South Africa: A Tale of Two Countries in Africa

This paper studies the dynamics between non-oil export promotion and manufacturing capacity utilization in Nigeria and South Africa. The empirical analysis applies the asymmetric ARDL cointegration technique proposed by Shin et al. (2011) from 1986 to 2022. The evidence suggests that ignoring the intrinsic nonlinearities may lead to misleading inference. In particular, the results reveal significant differences in the response of manufacturing capacity utilization to positive or negative changes in non-oil export and other explanatory variables in both the long- and short-run time horizons. The evidence of asymmetry could be of major importance for more efficient policymaking and forecasting in the Nigerian and South African manufacturing sectors to grow.