Published April 10, 2024 | Version v1
Conference paper Open

Disaggregating Census Data for Population Mapping Using a Bayesian Additive Regression Tree Model

  • 1. University of Southampton, Worldpop Research Group, Highfield, Southampton, SO17 1BJ

Description

Fine-scale population census data are often lacking due to the challenge of sharing such sensitive data at granular scales. In this study, we compare the Random Forest (RF) model and the Bayesian Additive Regression Tree (BART) model for population disaggregation using both census data from Ghana and simulated data. The BART model outperforms the RF model in out-of-sample predictions for metrics like bias, mean squared error, and root mean squared error. It also provides uncertainty estimates around the predicted population, which is often lacking with the RF model. This study highlights the BART model's superiority in disaggregating population data.

Files

submission_75.pdf

Files (312.7 kB)

Name Size Download all
md5:559f043d1135872c4789af8ab3234967
312.7 kB Preview Download