A SSP1-Low emission land use scenario based on LCM2019 for Scotland - Land Use Change only - baseline 2019 and scenario 2050 (nov22)

This set of datasets contains a land use change scenario (2050) for Scotland within the scope of a SSP1 - Low emissions scenario (Shared Socio-Economic Pathways). For achieving a low-emission scenario, simulated land use change targeted woodland expansion (including silvo-arable and silvo-pastoral) and decreased grazing intensity, both land use changes also aimed at benefitting four aspects of ecosystem services: carbon storage through tree planting, emission reduction through deintensification, biodiversity enhancement through tree planting, and pollination to support food production.

The baseline dataset is based on the Land Cover Map 2019 (Morton et al, 2020) aggregated at 100m resolution. Grazing intensity was added to it by using estimations of stocking rates from IACS (Wardell-Johnson, 2022), and grazing conservation thresholds (Chapman, 2007; FAS, 2021). From the baseline dataset, the land use scenario map was created using the SLM-OptionsTool, a land use change tool for Ecosystem Services based on the LandSFACTS model (Castellazzi et al, 2010). The attached land use scenario map for 2050 is not an optimised result, but it is only one possibility that meets all the constraints stipulated for the scenario.

For a detailed description of the scenario refer to the following web storymap : https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/c3d3feff85f14460b6c973127089d6f9

This analysis was conducted as part of the Land use Transformations (https://landusetransformations.hutton.ac.uk/) project (JHI-C3-1) in the Scottish Government funded Strategic Research Programme 2022-27.

This version of the datasets only includes 100m cells with land use change (14% of Scotland). The full dataset has a non-commercial version of the licence (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10927157).

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Datasets accessible here : SSP1-Low Emission Land Use Scenarios - land use change - Dataset - Natural Asset Register Data Portal (hutton.ac.uk)

License: CC-BY-4.0 namely “Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International“ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)

Copyright to display of the datasets: 
“Contains Data owned by UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology © Database Right/Copyright UKCEH. Based on Data from LPIS and JAC (Scottish Government, 2019).”

2 Main files :

• SSP1LEonLCM19_LUC_2019.tif : original land uses (2019) on which the scenario is based on. This land use map, of a resolution of 100m, is based on the Land Cover Map 2019 (Morton et al, 2020), estimations of stocking rates from IACS (Wardell-Johnson, 2022), and grazing conservation thresholds (Chapman, 2007; FAS, 2021). This version of the datasets only includes 100m cells with land use change (14% of Scotland).
  
  Contributions to the baseline dataset (SSP1LEonLCM19_LUC_2019.tif) :
  • 100% of 100m cells: Land Cover Map 2019 (Morton et al, 2020)
  • 93.88% of 100m cells: the LCM 2019 was subdivided by grazing intensity using estimations of stocking rates from IACS (Wardell-Johnson, 2022), and grazing conservation thresholds (Chapman, 2007; FAS, 2021). This impacts the grasslands, heathers, bogs and arable classes.
  • Estimated overall contributions: 65% UKCEH, 35% JHI

• SSP1LEonLCM19_LUC_2050.tif : land use scenario (2050), which is within the scope of a SSP1 - Low emissions scenario (Shared Scocio-Economic Pathways). The scenario was created using the SLM-OptionsTool, a land use change tool for Ecosystem Services based on the LandSFACTS model (Castellazzi et al, 2010). For a detailed description of the scenario refer to the following web storymap : https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/c3d3feff85f14460b6c973127089d6f9. This version of the datasets only includes 100m cells with land use change (14% of Scotland).
  
  Contributions to the scenario dataset (SSP1LEonLCM19_LUC_2050.tif) :
  • cf. contribution to the baseline (above)
  • 100% of 100m cells: modelled land use change
  • Estimated overall contributions: 50% UKCEH, 50% JHI

Main references:

Morton, R. D., Marston, C. G., O’Neil, A. W., & Rowland, C. S. (2020). Land Cover Map 2019 (25m rasterised land parcels, GB) [Data set]. NERC Environmental Information Data Centre. https://doi.org/10.5285/F15289DA-6424-4A5E-BD92-48C4D9C830CC

Wardell-Johnson, D. (2022) Stocking rates derived from IACS 2019 version 4. 
Based on data from Land Parcel Information System (2019) courtesy of Rural Payments and Inspections Division, Scottish Government.
Based on data from the June Agricultural Census (2019) courtesy of Rural and Environment Science and Analytical Services, Agricultural Statistics team, Scottish Government.

Chapman, P. (2007) Conservation Grazing of Semi-natural Habitats. Technical note TN586. SAC tn586-conservation.pdf (sruc.ac.uk)

FAS (2021) Practical Guide: Managing Peatlands and Upland Habitats. https://www.fas.scot/environment/biodiversity/protecting-scotlands-peatlands/practical-guide-managing-peatlands-and-upland-habitats/ (author: Paul Chapman)

Castellazzi, M.S.; Gimona, A. (2021) SLM-OptionsTool, a land use change tool for Ecosystem Services (arcgis toolbox and user manual included, part of RESAS Deliverable-O1.4.2ciiD27).

Castellazzi, M.S., Matthews, J., Angevin, F., Sausse, C., Wood, G.A., Burgess, P.J., Brown I., Conrad, K.F., Perry J.N. (2010).  Simulation scenarios of spatio-temporal arrangement of crops at the landscape scale . Environmental Modelling and Software 25, 1881-1889.  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2010.04.006  

https://www.hutton.ac.uk/research/departments/information-and-computational-sciences/tools/landsfacts