Research Institute for Nature and Forest (INBO)
Published January 16, 2024 | Version v1
Software Open

Moth trends and traits in Flanders (northern Belgium)

Creators

  • 1. ROR icon Research Institute for Nature and Forest
  • 2. ROR icon Radboud University Nijmegen
  • 3. Natuurpunt Studie
  • 4. ROR icon Vrije Universiteit Brussel

Contributors

Contact person:

  • 1. ROR icon Research Institute for Nature and Forest

Description

This code is related to the investigation of species traits as a guidance for moth conservation in the highly anthropogenic European region of Flanders (northern part of Belgium) based on Multi-Species Change Indices (MSCIs).

Abstract

  1. Insects appear to decline rapidly in recent decades. This so-called sixth mass extinction garnered significant media attention, raising public awareness.
  2. Macro-moths—a species-rich and ecologically diverse insect group—face severe declines, particularly in urbanised and intensively farmed areas.
  3. Flanders is a highly anthropogenic region, serving as a case study where the impact on macro-moths of stressors like intensive agriculture, industrialization and urbanization has been quantified through a recently compiled Red List. Here, for 717 macro-moth species, we calculated relative changes in distribution area between a reference period (1980-2012) and the subsequent period (2013-2022). By correlating these species-specific trends with ten key ecological and life-history traits, we calculated more general Multi-Species Change Indices (MSCIs).
  4. These MSCIs showed that species associated with wet biotopes and heathlands declined on average by 20-25%, while (sub)urban species increased by more than 60%. Species feeding on lichens or mosses increased by 31%, while grass-feeding species decreased by 20%. Both very small (+34%) and very large species (+15%) increased, whereas medium-sized species decreased by 5%. Monophagous (+17%), migrant (+88%), and colour-invariable species (+5%) increased, while colour-variable species decreased (-8%). Finally, Holarctic (-21%) and Palearctic species (-5%) decreased, while Mediterranean (+27%) and Western-Palearctic species (+9%) increased.
  5. Our trait-based approach identifies key threats and mitigation strategies for moths in anthropogenic regions, offering evidence-based insights for crafting efficient management recommendations and informed conservation policies to safeguard moth communities.

Technical info (English)

Order of execution

Follow the steps below to run the scripts in a logical order.
You can skip any steps if desired, each script will create the necessary folders and download the necessary data from zenodo each time if required.
Open the R project file `macro-moths-msci.Rproj` before opening any scripts such that the relative paths in the scripts work properly.

Step 1: data_preparation.Rmd

You can only run this script if you have the raw data at your disposal. If not, you can skip this step.

Create a folder `data/raw` where you store the raw data.
By running this script, you will merge the raw datasets in a single intermediate dataset.
This dataset is then stored in `data/intermediate` which is created by the script if it does not exist yet.

Step 2: data_exploration.Rmd

In this script, data exploration is performed.
In the end, a final dataset is written out for further analyses.
This dataset is then stored in `data/processed` which is created by the script if it does not exist yet.

Step 3: model_specification_msci.Rmd

Test script for model specification, model fit and figure creation.

Step 4: calculate_msci_traits.Rmd

In this script, all models are fitted for the calculation of MSCIs.
Models are cached in the folder `source/brms_cache` which is created in the script if it does not exist yet.
In the end, a summary table is written out as well as an R object used to create figures in step 6.
The script creates the folder `output` to store these if it does not exist yet.

Step 5: calculate_sci_species.Rmd

In this script, the model is fitted for the calculation of SCIs.
Model is cached in the folder `source/brms_cache` which is created in the script if it does not exist yet.
In the end, a summary table is written out.
The script creates the folder `output` to store this if it does not exist yet.

Step 6: create_figures.Rmd

In this script, final figures are created to be used in the conference and the research paper.
The script creates the folder `media` to store these if it does not exist yet.

Files

inbo/macro-moths-msci-v1.zip

Files (47.1 kB)

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md5:02a14fcf16db5c5c276f598ebd4a9d8b
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Additional details

Related works

Is cited by
Journal article: 10.1111/icad.12767 (DOI)
Is supplement to
Software: https://github.com/inbo/macro-moths-msci/tree/v1 (URL)
Is supplemented by
Dataset: 10.5281/zenodo.8383838 (DOI)