Nuts About Leadership

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Published January 9, 2024 | Version v1
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Unveiling Cognitive Biases in Scenario Development: A Study of the 2x2 Matrix Method

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This study examines the 2x2 matrix method (2x2 MM) in scenario development (SD). It finds that confirmation bias (CB), availability bias (AB), and overconfidence bias (OB) associated with the method can have an impact on the scenarios developed. While this phenomenon can be partly explained by the researchers’ way of using the 2x2 MM, it is intrinsic to the method, making it susceptible to cognitive biases. The study adds to the assessment of futures studies (FS) by suggesting tactics and recommendations that can improve the use of the 2x2 MM in SD.

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References

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