Growth and Trend Analysis of Area, Production and Yield of Rice: A scenario of rice security in Bangladesh

Bangladesh is positioned as the third rice-producing country in the world. In Bangladesh, regional growth and trend in rice production determinants, disparities, and similarities of rice production environments are highly desirable. In this study, the secondary time series data of area, production, and yield of rice from 1969-70 to 2019-20 were used to investigate the growth and trend on a periodic, regional, seasonal, and total basis. Quality checking, trend fitting, and classification analysis were performed by the Durbin-Watson test, Exponential growth model, Cochrane-Orcutt iteration method, and clustering method. The production contribution to the national rice production of Boro rice is increasing at 0.97% per year, whereas Aus and Aman season production contribution significantly decreased by 0.48% and 0.49% per year. Among the regions, Mymensingh, Rangpur, Bogura, Jashore, Rajshahi, and Chattogram contributed the most i.e. 13.9%, 9.8%, 8.6%, 8.6%, 8.2%, and 8.0%, respectively. Nationally, the area of Aus and Aman had a decreasing trend with a -3.63% and -0.16% per year, respectively. But, in the recent period (Period III) an increasing trend was observed in most regions. The Boro cultivation area is increasing at a rate of 3.57% per year during 1984-85 to 2019-20. The high-yielding variety adoption rate has increased over the period and in recent years it has found 72% for Aus, 73.5% for Aman, and 98.4% for Boro season. As a result, the yield of the Aus, Aman, and Boro seasons has been found increasing growth for most of the regions. We have identified different cluster regions in different seasons, indicating high dissimilarities among the rice production regions in Bangladesh. The region-wise actionable plan should be taken to rapidly adopt new varieties, management technologies, and extension activities in lower contributor regions to improve productivity. Cluster-wise, policy strategies should be implemented for top and low-contributor regions to ensure rice security in Bangladesh.