Figure 1. Location, genetic analysis, and modeling of the potential spread of the new alien population of S. invicta. (A) The invaded area in Sicily is marked with a star. The directions of wind trajectories starting from (forward) and arriving at (backward) the study area are indicated as percentages over the total time frame. Main commercial hubs on the island are highlighted. Inset map summarizes the records retrieved for the species alien and native ranges. (B) Nuptial flight recorded in January 2023. (C) Satellite view of the study area (37.055N, 15.267E) and ant nest positions (Data S1A). (D) Haplotype network of mitochondrial sequences. The three main haplotypes are annotated. Colors indicate the sample origin and the sizes of the circles represent the number of samples. (E) Worldwide frequency of the H5 haplotype recorded in Italy, highlighting possible introduction sources. (F) Bars represent suitable area estimated for the species partitioned by land use category (green: % of total area of Europe; blue: % of total area of that category). (G) Ensemble model map prediction under current and future (H) environmental conditions. (I) Future trends of predicted suitable area (% of total area).