Reliability analysis of bearing capacity of a shallow foundation using Monte Carlo simulation

Geotechnical projects include an inherent design uncertainty due to the nature of the soil. The main sources of uncertainty refer to the accuracy and completeness of the knowledge of the subsurface conditions and the materials' properties and resistances that will be mobilized under various loads. This work systematically analyzes the effect of the uncertainty in geotechnical properties on the calculation of the soil's bearing capacity for a shallow foundation of a strip footing. The Monte Carlo method was employed for the reliability analysis as well as three widely used commercial probabilistic and reliability analysis software.