FUTURES land change forecasts in response to flooding in Charleston area, South Carolina (2019-2050)

Climate-aware scenarios of FUTURES land change projections in Charleston area (Cherleston, Dorchester, Berkeley) for 2019-2050.

Zipped folder results contains FUTURES v3 simulation runs for 3 counties in South Carolina, USA (Charleston, Berkeley, Dorchester) from 2019 to 2050. Included are five climate-aware scenarios (reactive, managed retreat, resist, polarized population, trapped population) and one scenario which does not take future climate conditions into account (dynamic development). Each folder contains 50 monte-carlo simulation results with developed_seed_X.tif and adapted_seed_X.tif where X goes from 1 to 50. Values of developed_seed_X.tif range from -31 to 31, where the positive values represent simulation step when an undeveloped pixel was developed and the negative values represent simulation step when a developed pixel was abandoned. Zero stands for initial development. For example, value -11 means the particular pixel was abandoned in 2030. Note that values of raster files in Dynamic development folder range from -1 to 31, where -1 means undeveloped and the rest is the same as above. Values of adapted_seed_X.tif range from 0 to 100, where 0 means trapped (flooded but no adaptation), the other values represent return period for which the pixel is adapted (e.g. 2-, 5-, 10-, 20-, 50- and 100-year flood). The files' CRS is Albers Conic Equal Area, NAD83(2011) datum.

Additionally, we include migration_matrix.csv derived from IRS data, that contains probability values of moving from an origin county in the case study (row) to any other counties (columns).