Demographic factors and the environmental Kuznets curve: global plastic pollution by 2050 could be 2 to 4 times worse than projected

These data are made of two files. One file provides the observed data we collected and cleaned from the World Bank database. The second file provides the simulation results from the STIRPAT model we designed based on the observed data abovementioned. Our results can be summarised as follows:

Since 2015, the detrimental effects of plastic pollution have attracted media, public, and governmental attention. Considering economic growth is inevitable and a key driver of plastic contamination, it is worthwhile to analyze the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) relationship between economic development and plastic pollution. To this end, we contribute by being the first to (i) use the Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and technology model (STIRPAT model) to investigate this EKC relationship; (ii) provide a comprehensive analysis of how demographic factors affect plastic pollution; and (iii) use panel model techniques to examine the drivers of plastic pollution. Our empirical results support an inverted U-shaped relationship between plastic pollution and income. They show that at current trends, global plastic pollution (that is, annual discard of inadequately managed plastic waste) is expected to grow from 52 million tons per year in 2020 to 257 million tons per year in 2050.