Shepherding is not a shot in the dark

Data and R code for the analysis of predation on small livestock in the Northern Cape, South Africa. Contact the lead author for further requests (heidi.hawkins@uct.ac.za). 

Abstract

Predation threatens the viability of livestock farming, while lethal predator management can negatively influence wildlife ecology. There is renewed interest in non-lethal vs lethal methods of livestock protection, but a systematic comparison is lacking.  Using multivariate models, we explored how management (shepherd, no shepherd), land tenure, flock characteristics, and environmental factors drive losses of small livestock across the Northern Cape Province, South Africa. Black-backed jackal and caracal were the dominant livestock predators in both management groups. Predation of small livestock was five-fold lower in the shepherd (1.29% ± 0.38) compared to the non-shepherd group (6.09% ± 0.51; P < 0.0001), with a seven-fold lower-level of lamb predation (1.67% ± 0.51 vs. 11.52% ± 0.99; P < 0.0001). Predator management, flock size and farm identity but not land tenure were part of a linear mixed effects model describing small livestock losses, with management being the most significant component (P < 0.0001). We interpret our findings with caution because we could not control for predator and prey abundances, and the non-herder group could have inflated their predation estimates. While the efficacy of shepherding requires more research, we suggest that it is a viable predation management approach in South Africa and beyond.