CHARACTERIZATION OF DROUGHTS IN SERBIA USING STANDARDIZED PRECIPITATION INDEX AND MARKOV CHAINS

This paper presents an application of homogeneous Markov chain model to time series of SPI in order to characterize droughts in Serbia. The long-term probabilities of occurrence of different drought severity classes, recurrence times, expected residence time in each drought class and expected first passage time to reach the non-drought state were computed. Results are presented in a form of maps and the drought-prone areas are identified. Results of the performed analysis are useful in the context of drought early warning systems and in a planning of drought mitigation practices.