Predicting trends in research using research community imports and exports

A novel method for tracking (and possibly predicting) trends in research is presented. In addition to tracking what a research community produces, we illustrate how to track the ‘import’ and ‘export’ of ‘micro-solutions’ to and from research communities over time. To illustrate this method, we graph production, import and export activities for the three research communities most associated with the literature on ‘emerging research topics’ over a 20-year period. Predicted levels of import, production and export activity are provided.