Development and validation of predictive models for unplanned hospitalisation in the Basque Country: Analyzing the variability of non-deterministic algorithms

This release generates the results for the accompanying article.

The population in most developed countries is ageing, which entails growing healthcare needs. Population-wide predictive models are crucial to address this challenge and shift the healthcare system towards preventive intervention. For this reason, we predict the probability of unplanned hospitalization in the Basque Country and identify risk groups using several techniques. When dealing with non-deterministic algorithms, comparing a single model per technique is not enough to choose the best approach. Thus, we evaluate the median performance and variability of three families of models to be able to make an informed decision.

With this in mind, we achieve a double objective:

• Building predictive models for our specific application (unplanned hospitalisation in the Basque Country)
• Illustrating the need for a variability analysis in the comparison of non-deterministic algorithms