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Published April 4, 2022 | Version 1.0
Dataset Restricted

AR6 Scenarios Database

Creators

  • 1. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
  • 2. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
  • 3. Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro
  • 4. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis,
  • 5. Imperial College London
  • 6. Climate & Energy College, University of Melbourne; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
  • 7. CICERO Center for International Climate Research
  • 8. University of Leeds
  • 9. Universiteit Utrecht
  • 10. CIRED, AgroParisTech
  • 11. OpenEXP
  • 12. Norwegian University of Science and Technology
  • 13. University of Cape Town
  • 14. Paris School of Economics
  • 15. Politecnico di Milano; RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment
  • 16. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
  • 17. CIRED, Ecole des Ponts
  • 18. Ritsumeikan University
  • 19. University of Lausanne
  • 20. RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment
  • 21. Netherlands Environment Agency
  • 22. Climate Resource, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
  • 23. University of Melbourne
  • 24. Imperial College London, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

Description

The data is available for download at the AR6 Scenario Explorer hosted by IIASA.

As part of the IPCC's 6th Assessment Report (AR6), authors from Working Group III on Mitigation of Climate Change undertook a comprehensive exercise to collect and assess quantitative, model-based scenarios related to the mitigation of climate change.

Building on previous assessments, such as those undertaken for the 5th Assessment Report (AR5) and the Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C (SR15), the calls for AR6 for scenarios have been expanded and includes economy-wide GHG emissions, energy, and sectoral scenarios from global to national scales, thus more broadly supporting the assessment across multiple chapters (see Annex III, Part 2 of the WGIII report for more details).

The compilation and assessment of the scenario ensemble was conducted by authors of the IPCC AR6 report, and the resource is hosted by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) as part of a cooperation agreement with Working Group III of the IPCC. The scenario ensemble contains 3,131 quantitative scenarios with data on socio-economic development, greenhouse gas emissions, and sectoral transformations across energy, land use, transportation, buildings and industry. These scenarios derive from 191 unique modelling frameworks, 95+ model families that are either globally comprehensive, national, multi-regional or sectoral.

The criteria for submission included that the scenario is presented in a peer-reviewed journal accepted for publication no later than October 11th, 2021, or published in a report determined by the IPCC WG III Bureau to be eligible grey literature by the same date. The AR6 scenario database is documented in Annex III.2 of the Sixth Assessment Report of Working Group III. For the purpose of the assessment, scenarios have been grouped in various categories relating to, among other things, climate outcomes, overshoot, technology availability and policy assumptions.

For ease of use, the dataset is split into multiple files:

  • Scenarios data for the Global region

  • Scenarios data for R5 regions

  • Scenarios data for R6 regions

  • Scenarios data for R10 regions

  • Scenarios data for ISO-3 (country) regions

  • Global metadata indicators file

  • National metadata indicators file

The data is available for download at the AR6 Scenario Explorer hosted by IIASA. The license permits use of the scenario ensemble for scientific research and science communication, but restricts redistribution of substantial parts of the data. Please refer to the FAQ and legal code for more information.

In addition to the data you may find more relevant information and cite one of the relevant chapters of the WG III report.

If working with global or regional (R6, R10) data:

Keywan Riahi, Roberto Schaeffer, et al. Mitigation Pathways Compatible with Long-Term Goals, in "Mitigation of Climate Change".
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva, 2022.
url: http://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-3/

If working with national data (ISO region data):

Franck Lecocq, Harald Winkler, et al. Mitigation and development pathways in the near- to mid-term, in "Mitigation of Climate Change".
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva, 2022.
url: http://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-3/

If you find the metadata files particularly useful:

Celine Guivarch, Elmar Kriegler, Joana Portugal Pereira, et al. Annex III: Scenarios and Modelling Methods,

Scenarios data also supports analysis in Chapters 2, 5, 6, 7, 9, 10, 12 and 15

Files

Restricted

The record is publicly accessible, but files are restricted to users with access.

Request access

If you would like to request access to these files, please fill out the form below.

You need to satisfy these conditions in order for this request to be accepted:

The data is available for download at the AR6 Scenarios Database hosted by IIASA under a license which permits use of the scenario ensemble for scientific research and science communication, but restricts redistribution of substantial parts of the data.

We are committed to making the scenario ensemble available as widely as possible, and to encourage broad use of  the data for research, science communication and policy analysis in the context of climate change mitigation and sustainable development. We want to facilitate the dialogue on pathways at the interface between science and policy, and we aim to support a better understanding of the scientific basis of the IPCC’s 6th Assessment Report by releasing this scenario ensemble.

Nevertheless, we anticipate updates of the scenario ensemble. This may be either due to adding more detailed information to available scenarios in response to user requests, or because of reporting issues identified after the release that need to be corrected. While we did take the utmost care to validate all submitted data, such issues can never be fully avoided.

For this reason, downloads of scenario data are routed through the AR6 Scenario Explorer, unless the data is made available in relation to a specific figure in a publication or online visualization tool, for example as supplementary material to a manuscript published in a scientific journal.

Please refer to the FAQ and legal code for more information.

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Additional details

Funding

ENGAGE – Exploring National and Global Actions to reduce Greenhouse gas Emissions 821471
European Commission