Tourism Demand Forecasting and its application in Tourism Management- a case study of Manali in Himachal Pradesh, India

Tourism brings the opportunities of economic, social and cultural exchanges among citizens. Modelling and forecasting of tourism demand are necessary for the proper management of individual tourist places. Tourism management has become increasingly important in the post-pandemic days when the safety of both locals and tourists has to be ensured without affecting tourism-related economic opportunities. The present study considers the tourism demand of Manali, located in the Himalayan mountainous state of Himachal Pradesh in India, that attracts both domestic and foreign tourists throughout the year. Tourists coming to Manali opt for visiting the spots along with the popular tourism circuits or routes arranged by the travel operators or visit individual spots selectively. This paper applies regression statistics to check the significance of the variables taken before forecasting and explaining tourism demand of the tourist spots and tourist routes in and around Manali. Based on the tourism demand predicted, suggestions are offered for proper tourism management in the hill station.