Mainshock+aftershock M4.95+ seismicity forecasts derived from the Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) and the multiplicative hybrid earthquake models developed by Rhoades et al. (2014)

Contains six mainshock+aftershock seismicity forecasts developed by the Working Group of the Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) experiment, as well as sixteen multiplicative hybrid forecasts created by Rhoades et al. (2014). Six additional forecast files are included to properly conduct the comparative tests implemented in the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) testing centre.

Forecasts are stored in tab separated value files with the following fields (the first row of data is shown as an example):

LON_0  LON_1   LAT_0   LAT_1   DEPTH_0 DEPTH_1 MAG_0   MAG_1   RATE  FLAG
-125.4  -125.3  40.1    40.2    0.0     30.0    4.95    5.05    5.8499099999999998e-04  1

Forecast are described in detail by the following publications:

Bird, P., and Z. Liu (2007). Seismic Hazard Inferred from Tectonics: California. Seismological  Research Letters, 78(1):37-48.

Ebel, J. E., D. W. Chambers, A. L. Kafka, and J. A. Baglivo (2007). Non-Poissonian Earthquake Clustering and the Hidden Markov Model as Bases for Earthquake Forecasting in California. Seismological  Research Letters, 78(1): 57-65.

Helmstetter, A., Y. Y. Kagan, and D. D. Jackson (2007). High-resolution Time-independent Grid-based Forecast for M >= 5 Earthquakes in California. Seismological  Research Letters, 78(1): 78-86.

Holliday, J., Chen, C., Tiampo, K., Rundle, J., Turcotte, D., and Donnellan, A. (2007). A RELM earthquake forecast based on pattern informatics. Seismological Research Letters, 78(1):87–93.

Kagan, Y. Y., D. D. Jackson, and Y. Rong (2007). A Testable Five-Year Forecast of Moderate and Large Earthquakes in Southern California Based on Smoothed Seismicity. Seismological  Research Letters, 78(1): 94-98.

Rhoades, D.A., Gerstenberger, M.C., Christophersen, A., Zechar, J.D., Schorlemmer, D., Werner, M.J. and Jordan, T.H., 2014. Regional earthquake likelihood models II: Information gains of multiplicative hybrids. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 104(6):3072-3083.

Shen, Z.-K., D. D. Jackson, and Y. Y. Kagan (2007). Implications of Geodetic Strain Rate for Future Earthquakes, with a Five-Year Forecast of M5 Earthquakes in Southern California. Seismological  Research Letters, 78(1):116-120.

Ward, S. (2007). Methods for evaluating earthquake potential and likelihood in and around California. Seismological Research Letters, 78(1):121–133.

Wiemer, S. and Schorlemmer, D. (2007). ALM: An asperity-based likelihood model for California. Seismological Research Letters, 78(1):134–140.