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Dataset Open Access

Mainshock+aftershock M4.95+ seismicity forecasts derived from the Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) and the multiplicative hybrid earthquake models developed by Rhoades et al. (2014)

Bayona, Jose A.; Savran, William H.; Rhoades, David A.; Werner, Maximilian J.

Contains six mainshock+aftershock seismicity forecasts developed by the Working Group of the Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) experiment, as well as sixteen multiplicative hybrid forecasts created by Rhoades et al. (2014). Six additional forecast files are included to properly conduct the comparative tests implemented in the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) testing centre.

Forecasts are stored in tab separated value files with the following fields (the first row of data is shown as an example):

LON_0  LON_1   LAT_0   LAT_1   DEPTH_0 DEPTH_1 MAG_0   MAG_1   RATE  FLAG
-125.4  -125.3  40.1    40.2    0.0     30.0    4.95    5.05    5.8499099999999998e-04  1

Forecast are described in detail by the following publications:

Bird, P., and Z. Liu (2007). Seismic Hazard Inferred from Tectonics: California. Seismological  Research Letters, 78(1):37-48.

Ebel, J. E., D. W. Chambers, A. L. Kafka, and J. A. Baglivo (2007). Non-Poissonian Earthquake Clustering and the Hidden Markov Model as Bases for Earthquake Forecasting in California. Seismological  Research Letters, 78(1): 57-65.

Helmstetter, A., Y. Y. Kagan, and D. D. Jackson (2007). High-resolution Time-independent Grid-based Forecast for M >= 5 Earthquakes in California. Seismological  Research Letters, 78(1): 78-86.

Holliday, J., Chen, C., Tiampo, K., Rundle, J., Turcotte, D., and Donnellan, A. (2007). A RELM earthquake forecast based on pattern informatics. Seismological Research Letters, 78(1):87–93.

Kagan, Y. Y., D. D. Jackson, and Y. Rong (2007). A Testable Five-Year Forecast of Moderate and Large Earthquakes in Southern California Based on Smoothed Seismicity. Seismological  Research Letters, 78(1): 94-98.

Rhoades, D.A., Gerstenberger, M.C., Christophersen, A., Zechar, J.D., Schorlemmer, D., Werner, M.J. and Jordan, T.H., 2014. Regional earthquake likelihood models II: Information gains of multiplicative hybrids. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 104(6):3072-3083.

Shen, Z.-K., D. D. Jackson, and Y. Y. Kagan (2007). Implications of Geodetic Strain Rate for Future Earthquakes, with a Five-Year Forecast of M5 Earthquakes in Southern California. Seismological  Research Letters, 78(1):116-120.

Ward, S. (2007). Methods for evaluating earthquake potential and likelihood in and around California. Seismological Research Letters, 78(1):121–133.

Wiemer, S. and Schorlemmer, D. (2007). ALM: An asperity-based likelihood model for California. Seismological Research Letters, 78(1):134–140.

Files (297.7 MB)
Name Size
bird_liu.neokinema-fromXML.dat
md5:4c5fc9fc95934e519c8598f5c5d7588b
21.4 MB Download
ebel.aftershock.corrected-fromXML.dat
md5:47d8536ab2b279f04e5c5a1659063e56
21.4 MB Download
helmstetter_et_al.hkj.aftershock-fromXML.dat
md5:aa5bfc3719b98a642bb8b211fb519481
21.4 MB Download
helmstetter_et_al.hkj_in_hkj_kagan.aftershock-fromXML_c2.dat
md5:0b9f28d95fb845b40755e86f4a708403
8.4 MB Download
helmstetter_et_al.hkj_in_kagan.aftershock-fromXML_c2.dat
md5:c3e49544b054f2abcb81a0d9e39e3942
8.4 MB Download
helmstetter_et_al.hkj_in_pi.aftershock-fromXML_c2.dat
md5:6b9e3bfd0991cbe81e38640593770b2d
1.6 MB Download
helmstetter_et_al.hkj_in_shen.aftershock-fromXML_c2.dat
md5:0b9f28d95fb845b40755e86f4a708403
8.4 MB Download
helmstetter_et_al.hkj_in_ward_combo.aftershock-fromXML_c2.dat
md5:81962711f2828fbd78685d74ab5673cf
5.1 MB Download
holliday.pi-fromXML.dat
md5:86b773d19bfaae4c67dabe00a64f5ac7
21.4 MB Download
holliday.pi_in_pi-fromXML_c2.dat
md5:7a9442fa49d5032d99d5e1d021194ad4
1.7 MB Download
kagan_et_al.aftershock-fromXML_c.dat
md5:f6244ef191bf94dbb0acb98ebecededd
8.5 MB Download
relm_mhyb_hkj_alm-fromXML.dat
md5:7383b974bf3aabb3904580bf374cf726
18.3 MB Download
relm_mhyb_hkj_ebel-fromXML.dat
md5:682fe54a87c5e215fb63b685551004fc
18.3 MB Download
relm_mhyb_hkj_neokinema-fromXML.dat
md5:7eacff4b85c8b47464f5accb018780d4
18.3 MB Download
relm_mhyb_hkj_neokinema_pi-fromXML.dat
md5:e63c5fb098e2534b11c62c52e2317132
18.3 MB Download
relm_mhyb_hkj_pi-fromXML.dat
md5:e7414e5c3c2677993363a581f466f797
18.3 MB Download
relm_scal_mhyb_hkj_kagan-fromXML_c.dat
md5:ede29e03df0c4de755fdc96d853a8bb7
8.2 MB Download
relm_scal_mhyb_hkj_neokinema-fromXML_c.dat
md5:d49720d71199d3832cf6bd49d5cf2b7a
8.2 MB Download
relm_scal_mhyb_hkj_pi-fromXML_c.dat
md5:c821fdd9df7f3b7266a69da795d08296
8.2 MB Download
relm_scal_mhyb_hkj_shen-fromXML_c.dat
md5:0f6f07788e1ef2e95a0f13f08acc645b
8.2 MB Download
relm_scal_mhyb_hkj_shen_pi-fromXML_c.dat
md5:8a4cc216fa6359f870a4f07d7948cfd0
8.2 MB Download
relm_scal_mhyb_hkj_ward_combo-fromXML_c.dat
md5:1907427f62c87bbfaa615b523616ac41
5.0 MB Download
relm_scal_mhyb_hkj_ward_geodetic81-fromXML_c.dat
md5:a3b77f7c5f683693fef818f6aec7e343
5.0 MB Download
relm_scal_mhyb_hkj_ward_geodetic85-fromXML_c.dat
md5:3d123eb7c2a24d92db73859c6f7dac04
5.0 MB Download
relm_scal_mhyb_hkj_ward_geologic81-fromXML_c.dat
md5:9e4e1f3906908baccd9da44975f9cb20
5.0 MB Download
relm_scal_mhyb_hkj_ward_seismic81-fromXML_c.dat
md5:84d1a5102c9336abc99d36770bf5e716
5.0 MB Download
relm_scal_mhyb_hkj_ward_simulation-fromXML_c.dat
md5:082ee76904d9c884302e3aecd0b88dc6
5.0 MB Download
shen_et_al.geodetic.aftershock-fromXML_c.dat
md5:59b46d6402d1983b91595b8bcf19d0b0
7.8 MB Download
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