Calculation of Paris-Compatible Emission Paths with the ESPM Using the Example of the EU

The Extended Smooth Pathway Model (ESPM) presented here provides a framework for allocating a global CO2 budget to countries and deriving national emission paths. Exemplary emission targets are shown for the EU. The derivation of Paris-compatible emission paths, however, requires science-based political decisions about the global budget, its distribution, the potential for future net negative emissions and the course of national emission paths.