Calculation of Paris-Compatible Emission Paths with the ESPM Using the Example of the EU

The Extended Smooth Pathway Model (ESPM) presented here provides a framework for allocating a global CO₂ budget to countries and deriving national emission paths. Exemplary emission targets are shown for the EU. The derivation of Paris-compatible emission paths, however, requires science-based political decisions about the global budget, its distribution, the potential for future net negative emissions and the course of national emission paths.

Additional material::

• Brief description of the ESPM
• Updates of the article in the journal Wirtschaftsdienst (see "Working paper" on the right side)
• Detailed working paper (Version: 27/03/2021)
• Comprehensive mathematical description of the RM Scenario Types 1 - 6 (see "Technical note" on the right side)
• Excel tool for calculating the exemplary results in the journal article (see "Software" (version 33.0) on the right side)