The future of shrinking cities in the EU: pathways 1991-2050

Shrinking cities have been a growing topic of investigation for researchers and practitioners in the US, EU and beyond in the past two decades. The concept of shrinking city has been defined from different perspectives, and research agendas have been framed in order to deepen the knowledge around a broadening circumstance (Hollander et al., 2009). 
Despite the growing attention which has expanded the volume of research and its results, urban shrinkage has been having a hard time in climbing the priority list of policy makers at supra-local level (Bernt et al., 2014). Shrinkage events typically involve much more than just the demographic trend of population loss; causes and effects are intertwined around social, economic and environmental factors amongst others.
Despite its efforts, it seems that European policy making has not yet answered the growing challenges of local population decline with a strategic focus and structured approach.
The paper supports with quantitative evidence the concern for shrinkage and describes its patterns and incidence across EU countries from 1991 to present. Moreover, an original method has allowed to estimate prospective pathways of currently shrinking cities and unveils blind areas of future shrinkage, thereby covering a 1991-2050 time horizon.
The European Union is concerned and, in consideration of its means and resources, it has the opportunity to be the leading actor in steering shrinkage processes towards new equilibria; place-sensitive approaches are a key ingredient and these need a growing body of information and methods to fuel successful response strategies.