Dryad
Published December 8, 2020 | Version v1
Dataset Open

Coronavirus prevalence in Brazilian Amazon and Sao Paulo city

Authors/Creators

  • 1. Faculdade de Ciências Médicas de Minas Gerais
  • 2. University of Oxford
  • 3. Faculdades Oswaldo Cruz
  • 4. Harvard University
  • 5. University of Sao Paulo
  • 6. Vitalant
  • 7. Imperial College London
  • 8. Institute for Applied Economic Research
  • 9. Fundação Hospitalar de Hematologia e Hemoterapia do Amazonas*
  • 10. Fundação Pró-Sangue Hemocentro de São Paulo
  • 11. Departamento de Engenharia de Sistemas Eletrônicos*
  • 12. Universidade Federal do ABC
  • 13. Fundação Centro de Hematologia e Hemoterapia de Minas Gerais
  • 14. Universidade de Sao Paulo

Description

SARS-CoV-2 spread rapidly in the Brazilian Amazon. Mortality was elevated, despite the young population, with the health services and cemeteries overwhelmed. The attack rate in this region is an estimate of the final epidemic size in an unmitigated epidemic. Here we show that by June, one month after the epidemic peak in Manaus, capital of the Amazonas state, 44% of the population had detectable IgG antibodies. This equates to a cumulative incidence of 52% after correcting for the false-negative rate of the test. Further correcting for the effect of antibody waning we estimate that the final attack rate was 66%. This is higher than seen in other settings, but lower than the predicted final size for an unmitigated epidemic in a homogeneously mixed population. This discrepancy may be accounted for by population structure as well as some limited physical distancing and non-pharmaceutical measures adopted in the city.

Notes

Funding provided by: Medical Research Council
Crossref Funder Registry ID: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000265
Award Number: MR/S0195/1

Funding provided by: Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo
Crossref Funder Registry ID: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001807
Award Number: 18/14389-0

Funding provided by: Itau Unibanco Todos pela Saude*
Crossref Funder Registry ID:
Award Number:

Funding provided by: Itau Unibanco Todos pela Saude
Crossref Funder Registry ID:

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