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Estimation of weighted instant Case Fatality Rate of COVID-19 in Italy.

Massimo Pierini; Sandra Mazzoli; Alessio Pamovio

Case Fatality Rate (CFR) is usually estimated as total death over total cases. This estimate though does not take into account likely dynamic variations of fatality along the time line. Is here presented a dynamic estimation of instant case fatality rate based upon onset-to-death interval: weighted instant Case Fatality Rate (wiCFR). Estimation of wiCFR in Italy shows values and trend different from classic cumulative CFR that can be useful to better understand current situation: the trend is indeed increasing from half September, differently from classic CFR apparently decreasing.

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