Adapted Bass Diffusion Model for the Spread of COVID-19 in the Philippines: Implications to Interventions and Flattening the Curve

Understanding the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic is one of the most studied phenomena at present. Researchers were using various models to show their characteristics to make solutions. In this study, an adapted bass diffusion model was used to determine the time when the COVID-19 curve flattens in the Philippines. Further, it also determined the possible incidence of the second wave of infection. Also, it forecasted the number of infections per month and calculated the doubling time. Results revealed that the flattening of the curve is still not happening at present in the Philippines. The country is still facing the first wave. With this, sustaining and boosting its strategies in fighting the spread of the virus is a priority.