Published June 8, 2026
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Regional impact risk classification (RIRC): A predictive framework for plant invasion impacts
Authors/Creators
- 1. Department of Agronomy and Plant Breeding, College of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran
- 2. College of Resources and Environment, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan, China
- 3. Department of Plant Protection, College of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran
- 4. Department of Biology, University of Fribourg, Fribourg, Switzerland
- 5. College of Resources and Environment, Huazhong Agricultural University, Wuhan, China|Department of Agronomy and Plant Breeding, College of Agriculture and Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran|Department of Biology, University of Fribourg, Fribourg, Switzerland
Description
Regional prediction of impact risk is essential for prioritizing targeted management of invasive alien plants. This study presents the Regional Impact Risk Classification (RIRC) framework, which combines the Environmental Impact Classification for Alien Taxa (EICAT) with species distribution models (SDMs) to connect ecological impact severity with the spatial likelihood of establishment and spread under current and future climates. Applying RIRC to 20 alien plants in Iran, species-specific and aggregated regional maps were produced, along with detailed climatic suitability projections. The analysis revealed significant regional contrasts: very high to extreme risks for salt- and drought-tolerant species along the southern coasts, a dominance of tree invaders in the southwestern lowlands and the Zagros Mountains, and hotspots of trees, woody climbers, and aquatic species in the northern provinces. Aggregated maps identified the Caspian coast and southern regions as hotspots for invasion risk. Under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate scenarios, RIRC levels increased along the northern and southern coasts but declined in the central deserts. However, the projections indicated a bidirectional redistribution among RIRC classes rather than a uniform upward shift, with stronger spatial reallocation occurring under RCP 8.5, particularly in the southwestern lowlands and along the Zagros Mountains. Cynanchum acutum showed a high potential for impact across Iran, far exceeding other species and demonstrating significant spread under climate change scenarios. Tree species such as Ailanthus altissima in the northern areas along the Caspian coast and Neltuma juliflora in the southern half of Iran also exemplified expansions under climate change. These findings highlight the urgent need for region-specific strategies that emphasize early detection and rapid response to prevent establishment. By linking impact severity with spatial dynamics, RIRC provides a scalable decision-support framework for guiding invasion management and conservation planning under current and future climates.
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