An Integrated Framework for Asteroid Impact Risk Assessment: Post-DART Analysis and a High-Fidelity Simulation Tool

The empirical success of the Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) and the imminent
launch of the Near-Earth Object (NEO) Surveyor mission have radically shifted planetary
defense from a theoretical discipline to a practical one.1 This progress reveals new
complexities, most notably the efficient and unexpectedly non-axial momentum transfer
from ejecta recoil on "rubble-pile" asteroids like Dimorphos , necessitating a new generation
of high-fidelity simulation tools. This paper proposes an interactive, web-based framework
that uniquely integrates real-time NEO data from NASA, geological and topographical
datasets from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), and impact physics models informed by
DART mission findings. The 2024 YR4 asteroid scenario is used as a contemporary example
of complex planetary defense decision-making, where a threat shifted from a potential Earth
impact to a lunar surface risk, highlighting the critical need for the proposed tool.7 The paper
concludes with a case study of Alexandria, Egypt, demonstrating the tool's capability to
model cascading hazards (seismic and tsunami) with high geospatial resolution, assessing
risks to population centers, critical infrastructure, and cultural heritage.