Urban climate and heat stress: how likely is the implementation of adaptation measures in mid-latitude cities? The case of façade greening analyzed with Bayesian networks

Urban heat is a challenge for mid-latitude cities possibly aggravated by global climate change making it necessary to adapt the urban fabric. Façade greening has been identified as an important measure to adjust the building stock and new buildings to adverse climatic impacts. Yet, little is known on factors that influence implementation probabilities for adaptation measures. Therefore, we tried to figure out the driving forces and barriers for implementation of façade greening applying the methodology of Bayesian networks. The article presents the Bayesian network as an analytical system to examine the probability for the implementation of adaptation measures by including expert opinions.

The results show that experts in Berlin estimate the likelihood of an implementation of façade greening under current conditions at 2 %. The article also examines further supportive factors that exist to raise this comparatively low value. A scenario including financial incentives from a backyard greening program raises the chances to 14 %. However, BN results confirm that it depends on the factor of “willingness” of involved actors and the right combination of supportive factors, as there are no regulations to fix the implementation of a façade greening legally.