Published October 15, 2024 | Version v2

Incorporating Hourly Convective Cloud data into Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification Forecasting with Machine Learning

  • 1. ROR icon Shanghai Jiao Tong University
  • 2. Second Institute of Oceanography SOA

Description

These models were developed to predict both the probability of RI and the binary RI classification for tropical cyclones. They are a weighted average of probabilities derived from logistic regression, random forest, decision tree, and extremely randomized tree algorithms within the standard Python scikit-learn package. The uploaded files include the hyperparameters and weights for each individual machine learning model.

Notes

Note that we have only explored a limited number of tunable hyperparameters in the machine learning schemes as the primary aim of this study is to demonstrate the potential impact of integrating very deep convection into tropical cyclone rapid intensification forecasts using machine learning methods. For real‐time operations, the hyperparameters and weights for the individual machine learning schemes should be updated based on available samples prior to each hurricane season.

Files

deterministic forecast models.zip

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