Journal article Open Access

AEC-2015: Anticipated Economic Shock

Louangrath, P.

The objective of this research is to provide a method to determine the magnitude and impact of risk from the AEC-2015. The interdisciplinary tools used included econometrics, population ecology and statistics. The research issue is the magnitude and impact of risk from the AEC-2015, and its potential effect on family business and SME. Macroeconomic data from 2003 to 2014 was drawn from the World Economic Outlook 2013 published by the IMF. Comparative data came from the Office of the National Social and Economic Development Board (NSEDB) of Thailand for 2013. The dependent variable (Y) was defined as risk. The independent variable (X) included the GDP growth rates, savings rate, total investment, current account balance, and government revenue and expense. Series of Anderson-Darling test show that past intra-regional growth rates were randomly distributed and no country exhibited growth beyond the bound of x* + 2S. The upper bound expected growth are also within normal range mu +2sigma < 13.00%. The carrying capacity for the ASEAN region is 1.60 with the growth multiplier of -0.14 from a Weibull regression Y = 1.60 – 0.14X. The risk of shock assessment was determined by discrete probability. The range of probability of members countries to benefit from AEC-2015 is Ui = 0.34; group risk is rho = 1 – U = 1 – 0.34 = 0.66. Exogenous shock factor against family business and SME in member countries is dD = -0.23. The intended contributions of this research is to lay a ground work for future research on the issue of shock at micro level from macro policy changes, such as regional economic integration. Secondly, the proposed methods of measurement in this research may have practical value to stakeholders in preparation for the New Economy: AEC-2015.

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