Determining seasonal delay curves

This paper presents an approach to expand on the Annual Service Volume (ASV) method for estimating air traffic delays. The ASV approach is a direct and intuitive method to estimate air traffic delays at an airport based on airline scheduled demand levels at that particular airport. The Seasonal Delay Curve (SDC) approach attempts to build on the ASV delay estimates by accounting for seasonal capacity variations. The result is an equally intuitive method that sheds light on the impact that seasons can have on delays at specific airports. This improvement helps explain why a particular scheduled level of demand can produce different amounts of delay in January than in July. This paper demonstrates how delay estimates can differ by season at airports like SFO and ORD that have noticeable seasonality in their arrival and departure rates.