Baseline and Future Habitat Suitability Maps for Tree Species Prioritized for Food Tree Portfolios for Zambia

This archive includes habitat suitability maps for six native food tree species (Anisophyllea boehmii Engl., Parinari curatellifolia Planch. ex Benth., Strychnos cocculoides Baker, Tamarindus indica L., Thespesia garckeana F.Hoffm. [syn. Azanza garckeana (F.Hoffm.) Exell & Hillc.] and Uapaca kirkiana|Müll.Arg.|) and four exotic food tree species (Carica papaya L., Mangifera indica L., Persea americana Mill. and Psidium guajava L.). These species had been prioritized by the project. Species suitability modelling followed the BIOCLIM algorithm whereby a climate suitability score is calculated that reflects the core distribution (5% - 95%) and the marginal distribution (0% - 5% or 95% or 100%) of a species in environmental space. The BIOCLIM algorithm was expanded to reflect the middle of the environmental range (25% - 75%).

Species suitability was inferred through bioclimatic ranges documented in the Tree Globally Observed Environmental Ranges database (TreeGOER; Kindt 2023). Baseline suitability maps used the historical climate documented by WorldClim 2.1 (Fick & Hijmans 2017). Future suitability maps correspond to a low emissions scenario (Shared Socio-Economic Pathway [SSP] 1-2.6) and a high emissions scenario (SSP 3-7.0), both calculated as medians from Global Climate Models (GCM) projections for the 2050s (2041-2060) available from WorldClim 2.1 (respectively from 23 and 18 GCMs).

For larger sets of tree species native to Zambia, it has recently become possible to filter tree species by bioclimatic conditions of the planting site with the GlobalUsefulNativeTrees database (GlobUNT; Kindt et al. 2023). The GlobUNT database internally uses TreeGOER environmental ranges and the same BIOCLIM algorithm that was used the generate the habitat suitability maps. Included in this archive is a list of native tree species to Zambia that were filtered for the use category of human food.

When using these maps, cite the following:

·         Fick, S. E., & Hijmans, R. J. (2017). WorldClim 2: New 1‐km spatial resolution climate surfaces for global land areas. International Journal of Climatology, 37(12), 4302–4315. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5086

·         Kindt, R. (2023). TreeGOER: A database with globally observed environmental ranges for 48,129 tree species. Global Change Biology, 29, 6303–6318. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16914

Information in this archive were generated for the project of Piloting incentive-based agricultural portfolios for nutrition and resilience in Zambia. For more information about this project, check the website: Piloting incentive-based agricultural portfolios for nutrition and resilience in Zambia | World Agroforestry | Transforming Lives and Landscapes with Trees