Published June 24, 2024
| Version v1
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Prediction of the potential distribution of Chimonobambusa utilis (Poaceae, Bambusoideae) in China, based on the MaxEnt model
Authors/Creators
- 1. Guizhou Provincial Academy of Forestry, Guiyang, China
- 2. Guizhou Provincial Academy of Forestry, Guiyang, China|Guizhou Caohai Observation and Research Station for Wet Ecosystem, National Forestry and Grassland Administration, Weining, China
- 3. Guizhou Provincial Academy of Forestry, Guiyang, China|Guizhou Liping Observation and Research Station for Karst Rocky Desert Ecosystem, Qiandongnan Prefecture, China
- 4. Guizhou Provincial Academy of Forestry, Guiyang, China|Guizhou Libo Observation and Research Station for Karst Forest Ecosystem, Libo, China
- 5. Guizhou Provincial Academy of Forestry, Guiyang, China|Chishui Bamboo Forest Ecosystem National Observation and Research Station, Chishui, China
Description
Chimonobambusa utilis is a unique edible bamboo species valued for its economic and nutritional benefits. However, its existence in natural habitats is at risk due to environmental shifts and human interventions. This research utilised the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) to predict potential habitats for Ch. utilis in China, identifying key environmental factors influencing its distribution and analysing changes in suitable habitats under future climate conditions. The results show that the results of the MaxEnt model have high prediction accuracy, with an AUC (Area Under the receiver operating characteristic Curve) value of 0.997. Precipitation in the driest month (Bio14), altitude (Alt) and isothermality (Bio03) emerged as the primary environmental factors influencing the Ch. utilis distribution. Currently, the suitable habitats area for Ch. utilis is 10.55 × 104 km2. Projections for the 2050s and 2090s indicate potential changes in suitable habitats ranging from -3.79% to 10.52%. In general, the most suitable habitat area will decrease and shrink towards higher latitude areas in the future. This study provides a scientific basis for the introduction, cultivation and conservation of Ch. utilis.
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