Predictive ecological niche model for Cinnamomum parthenoxylon (Jack) Meisn. (Lauraceae) from Last Glacial Maximum to future in Vietnam
Authors/Creators
- 1. Join Vietnam–Russia Tropical Science and Technology Research Center, Hanoi, Vietnam, Ha Noi, Vietnam|Graduate University of Science and Technology (GUST), Vietnam Academy of Science and Technology, Ha Noi, Vietnam
- 2. Join Vietnam–Russia Tropical Science and Technology Research Center, Hanoi, Vietnam, Ha Noi, Vietnam
- 3. Vietnam National University of Forestry at Dong Nai, Dong Nai, Vietnam
- 4. Institute of Ecology and Biological Resources, Vietnamese Academy of Science and Technologies, Hanoi, Vietnam
Description
Cinnamomum parthenoxylon (Jack) Meisn. is a tree in genus Cinnamomum that has been facing global threats due to forest degradation and habitat fragmentation. Many recent studies aim to describe habitats and assess population and species genetic diversity for species conservation by expanding afforestation models for this species. Understanding their current and future potential distribution plays a major role in guiding conservation efforts. Using five modern machine-learning algorithms available on Google Earth Engine helped us evaluate suitable habitats for the species. The results revealed that Random Forest (RF) had the highest accuracy for model comparison, outperforming Support Vector Machine (SVM), Classification and Regression Trees (CART), Gradient Boosting Decision Tree (GBDT) and Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt). The results also showed that the extremely suitable ecological areas for the species are mostly distributed in northern Vietnam, followed by the North Central Coast and the Central Highlands. Elevation, Temperature Annual Range and Mean Diurnal Range were the three most important parameters affecting the potential distribution of C. parthenoxylon. Evaluation of the impact of climate on its distribution under different climate scenarios in the past (Last Glacial Maximum and Mid-Holocene), in the present (Worldclim) and in the future (using four climate change scenarios: ACCESS, MIROC6, EC-Earth3-Veg and MRI-ESM2-0) revealed that of C. parthenoxylon would likely expand to the northeast, while a large area of central Vietnam will gradually lose its adaptive capacity by 2100.
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