Published April 16, 2024 | Version v1
Dataset Open

Data and literature repository for "Climate Futures are Political Futures: Integrating Political Development Into the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs)"

Authors/Creators

  • 1. German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
  • 2. Peace Research Institute Oslo
  • 3. Carleton University, Ottawa
  • 4. ROR icon University of Gothenburg
  • 5. ROR icon International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
  • 6. ROR icon Chalmers University of Technology
  • 7. ROR icon Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
  • 8. Wageningen University
  • 9. Frederick S. Pardee Center for International Futures
  • 10. University of Potsdam
  • 11. ROR icon Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
  • 12. ROR icon Goethe University Frankfurt
  • 13. ROR icon Heidelberg University
  • 14. Uppsala University
  • 15. Uppsala University Department of Peace and Conflict Research
  • 16. German Development Institute

Description

The datasets provided in the repository (listed in Table 1 of the manuscript):

  • Governance (Andrijevic et al., 2020)*
  • Government effectiveness (Andrijevic et al., 2020)*
  • Violent conflict (Hegre et al., 2016)
  • Rule of law (update to the Soergel et al., 2021)

*Please note that these two variables can be found in the same data file.

The indicators can also be retrieved through the SSP Extensions Explorer. 


For applications of the projections of political indicators in further analyses, please consult the following references:  

Brutschin, E., Pianta, S., Tavoni, M., Riahi, K., Bosetti, V., Marangoni, G., & Van Ruijven, B. J. A multidimensional feasibility evaluation of low-carbon scenarios. Environmental Research Letters 2021, 16(6), 064069.

Gidden MJ, Brutschin E, Ganti G, Unlu G, Zakeri B, Fricko O, et al. Fairness and feasibility in deep mitigation pathways with novel carbon dioxide removal considering institutional capacity to mitigate. Environmental Research Letters 2023, 18(7): 074006.  

Hoch JM, de Bruin SP, Buhaug H, Von Uexkull N, van Beek R, Wanders N. Projecting armed conflict risk in Africa towards 2050 along the SSP-RCP scenarios: a machine learning approach. Environmental Research Letters 2021, 16(12): 124068.  

Joshi DK, Hughes BB, Sisk TD. Improving governance for the Post-2015 Sustainable Development Goals: Scenario forecasting the next 50 years. World Development 2015, 70: 286-302.  

Moyer JD. Blessed are the peacemakers: The future burden of intrastate conflict on poverty. World Development 2023, 165: 106188.  

Moyer JD, Turner SD, Meisel CJ. What are the drivers of diplomacy? Introducing and testing new annual dyadic data measuring diplomatic exchange. Journal of Peace Research 2021, 58(6): 1300-1310.  

Petrova, K, Olafsdottir, G, Hegre, H, Gilmore, EA (2023). The ‘conflict trap’ reduces economic growth in the shared socioeconomic pathways. Environmental Research Letters, 2023, 18(2), 024028.  

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andrijevic_2020_gov_goveff.csv

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Additional details

Related works

Is original form of
Publication: 10.1038/s41893-019-0405-0 (DOI)
Publication: 10.1088/1748-9326/11/5/054002 (DOI)
Publication: 10.1038/s41558-021-01098-3 (DOI)

References

  • Andrijevic, M., Crespo Cuaresma, J., Muttarak, R. et al. Governance in socioeconomic pathways and its role for future adaptive capacity. Nat Sustain 3, 35–41 (2020)
  • Hegre, H., Buhaug, H., Calvin, K. V. et al. Forecasting civil conflict along the shared socioeconomic pathways. Environmental Research Letters, 11(5). (2016)
  • Soergel, B., Kriegler, E., Weindl, I. et al. A sustainable development pathway for climate action within the UN 2030 Agenda. Nat. Clim. Chang. 11, 656–664 (2021).