Published May 26, 2012
| Version 12927
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Uncertainty Propagation and Sensitivity Analysis During Calibration of an Integrated Land Use and Transport Model
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In this work, propagation of uncertainty during calibration
process of TRANUS, an integrated land use and transport model
(ILUTM), has been investigated. It has also been examined, through a
sensitivity analysis, which input parameters affect the variation of the
outputs the most. Moreover, a probabilistic verification methodology
of calibration process, which equates the observed and calculated
production, has been proposed. The model chosen as an application is
the model of the city of Grenoble, France. For sensitivity analysis and
uncertainty propagation, Monte Carlo method was employed, and a
statistical hypothesis test was used for verification. The parameters of
the induced demand function in TRANUS, were assumed as uncertain
in the present case. It was found that, if during calibration, TRANUS
converges, then with a high probability the calibration process is
verified. Moreover, a weak correlation was found between the inputs
and the outputs of the calibration process. The total effect of the
inputs on outputs was investigated, and the output variation was found
to be dictated by only a few input parameters.
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References
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