Published October 22, 2017 | Version v1
Journal article Open

Expert Elicitation to Estimate the Size of an Iceberg based on the Tip: Some Methodological Challenges in Determining the Magnitude of White-Collar Crime

  • 1. BI Norwegian Business School, Norway
  • 2. Manifest Center for Social Analysis, Norway

Contributors

  • 1. Raksha Shakti University

Description

Expert elicitation is a research method designed to make estimations in areas where we have no knowledge, only indicators and experiences. By systematic interviews of experts, we tried to estimate the magnitude of white-collar crime in Norway. On our way to a final answer, we were faced with a number of obstacles in our research design. This article reports from our research journey by communicating our learning from methodological challenges when applying expert elicitation to estimate the size of an iceberg based on knowledge about the tip of the iceberg. In particular, participation refusals and response confusions are discussed. This article presents results from a study where we engaged an expert panel to estimate a number of parameters that can determine the total amount of money lost yearly because of white-collar crime. 

Files

Gottschalk&Gunnesdalijcjs2017vol12issue2.pdf

Files (372.9 kB)

Name Size Download all
md5:4a50c58301db9bce3b0e5a2cc04beac4
372.9 kB Preview Download

Additional details

References

  • Benson, M., & Gottschalk, P. (2015). Gender and white-collar crime in Norway: An empirical study of media reports. International Journal of Law, Crime and Justice, 43(4), 535-552. Breusch, T. (2005) Estimating the underground economy using MIMIC models. Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Econometrics with number 0507003. Retrieved from http://econwpa.repec.org/eps/em/papers/0507/0507003.pdf. Gottschalk, P. (2016). Explaining white-collar crime: The concept of convenience in financial crime investigations. Palgrave Macmillan, Springer publishing, UK: London. Heyman, J., & Sailors, J. (2016). A respondent-friendly method of ranking long lists, International Journal of Market Research. 58(5), 693-710. Imamoglu, H. (2016). Re-estimation of the size of underground economy in European countries: MIMIC approach, International Journal of Economic Perspectives, 10(1), 171-193. Kynn, M. (2008). The 'heuristics and biases' bias in expert elicitation. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. 171, 239-264. Langton, L., & Piquero, N. L. (2007). Can general strain theory explain white-collar crime? A preliminary investigation of the relationship between strain and select white-collar offenses. Journal of Criminal Justice, 35, 1-15. Meyer, M. A., & Booker, J. M. (2001). Eliciting and analyzing expert judgment: A practical guide, SIAM Books, ASA-SIAM Series on Statistics and Applied Probability. Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics (SIAM), Pennsylvania: Philadelphia. Michel, P. (2008). Financial crimes: the constant challenge of seeking effective prevention solutions, Journal of Financial Crime, 15(4), 383-397. Slottje, P., Sluijs, J. P., & Knol, A. B. (2008).Expert elicitation: Methodological suggestions for its use in environmental health impact assessments. RIVM Letter report. National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, the Netherlands. Sutherland, E. H. (1940). White-collar criminality. American Sociological Review. 5, 1-12. Valkenhoef, G., & Tervonen, T. (2016). Entropy-optimal weight constraint elicitation with additive multi-attribute utility models, Omega, 64, 1-12.